AGP Executive Report

Oil and Shipping: Brent topped $110 a barrel as Hormuz threats stoked supply fears. Oil flows have returned to pre-war levels, but shipping through the strait remains far below normal and costs are elevated. Egypt’s Energy Push: EBRD-led lenders are backing a 1.2GW solar project with 600MWh of storage, supported by a $265 million loan. Islamic Finance: Global assets are projected to rise from $6.5 trillion in 2025 to more than $10.5 trillion by 2030, led by growth in banking and sukuk. Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Turkey that could open the way for resource exploration. Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and the EU reject the pact, adding uncertainty around offshore investment. Trade and Technology: Canada’s Mark Carney is visiting Turkey to deepen energy, defence and trade ties; bilateral trade has grown nearly 50% in five years. Israeli cybersecurity firms raised $4.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with investors increasingly targeting AI security.

Energy & Inflation: The Iran war is driving oil toward $110 a barrel, squeezing importers: Japan’s first-half trade deficit hit a record $17.8 billion, while UK inflation climbed to 3.5%. Egypt’s Solar Push: The EBRD is leading $265 million in financing for a 1.2GW solar plant with battery storage, billed as Africa’s largest, strengthening Egypt’s power supply. GCC Logistics: FedEx has expanded road transport for dangerous goods across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, targeting industries from healthcare to energy. Canada–Türkiye Trade: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit is set to advance cooperation in energy, defence and trade, with talks expected to cover LNG, nuclear power and a possible free-trade agreement. Regional Industry: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed a defence cooperation pact focused on joint production and technology transfers. Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament backed a maritime deal with Türkiye that could open the way to resource exploration, drawing objections from Egypt and Israel.

Oil & Shipping: Brent touched $111.99 a barrel before easing to $108.72 as traders weighed Iran-Pakistan mediation against attacks on Gulf shipping. More damage to vessels could tighten oil transport and raise costs. Canada–Türkiye Ties: Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to pursue agreements on energy, trade and investment, as Canada seeks to diversify beyond the US; the countries are also looking at free-trade talks. Energy Investment: Türkiye plans $80 billion in power-grid investment by 2035, while its energy strategy targets renewables meeting 70% of needs by 2040. Egypt Projects: Talaat Moustafa Group and Egypt announced an EGP 11 trillion agreement for four mixed-use projects, a major push for investment and development. Libya–Türkiye Deal: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime agreement with Türkiye, with rival political institutions welcoming the move as a step toward closer cooperation. Market Confidence: Türkiye’s finance minister says those who profited from alleged fund-market manipulation have been identified; authorities are pursuing asset recovery as the scandal affecting hundreds of thousands of investors rattles confidence. Turkmenistan Gas: Ashgabat’s oil and gas forum is focusing on export-route diversification, pipelines and logistics, with development of the Galkynysh field central to plans to expand supplies.

AI and Digital Economy: Dubai Chamber of Digital Economy signed agreements with Nebius Academy and Lovable to accelerate AI adoption across the emirate’s private sector, with training planned for businesses linked to 14,000 member companies. Qatar and the US also discussed digital-economy investment and innovation. Regional Resources: Libya’s eastern parliament unanimously approved a maritime agreement with Türkiye, reversing its 2020 rejection and setting a framework for rights to offshore oil and gas resources. Energy and Inflation: S&P warned that the energy shock could add seven percentage points to Türkiye’s inflation this year and shave 0.4 points off growth. Türkiye plans $80 billion in power-grid investment by 2035, while Egypt secured $566 million for a 1.2-gigawatt solar project. Capital Markets: Türkiye plans tighter oversight after a funds crisis; investors could receive interim payouts of up to 1 million liras once legislation passes.

Energy & Shipping: Oil remains volatile as attacks and insecurity around the Strait of Hormuz threaten a vital trade route. Iran says its seven-day proposal could reopen the strait on day six; Washington says it has blocked Iranian oil exports while keeping other shipments moving. Regional Risks: Egypt is weighing military support for Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks threaten the kingdom’s infrastructure and shipping, while security concerns have pushed Saudi Arabia’s flagship Future Investment Initiative summit to next year. Investment: Dubai’s economy reached AED473 billion in the first half of 2026, with key sectors expanding. Egypt is launching an investment zone for Qatar’s $29.7 billion Alam Al Roum project and has approved a prospectus for Banque du Caire’s planned sale of a 30% stake. Trade Routes: Türkiye says the Iraq–Europe Development Road could generate $55 billion for its economy over a decade, underlining the push for alternatives as regional shipping faces disruption.

Energy and Trade: Oil eased from a five-month high, but Strait of Hormuz disruptions remain a supply risk. Qatar says the global energy shock has yet to peak, while container freight rates have surged 130% since February. Dubai Growth: The emirate’s economy reached Dh473 billion in the first half of 2026, with key sectors expanding. Egypt Investment: Cairo launched an investment zone for Qatar Diar’s $29.7 billion Alam Al Roum project; foreign real-estate investment in Egypt rose 47.4% to $2.8 billion. Türkiye Business: Small-business closures reached 93,095 in the first nine months of the year, as Fitch warned that high funding costs are pressuring leasing and factoring firms. Saudi Outlook: The kingdom’s central bank governor says the economy remains resilient despite regional conflict, with energy investments helping cushion external shocks.

Energy and Shipping: Oil eased on Monday after Washington waived some Russian sanctions, with Brent at $108.30 a barrel, but Middle East risks kept markets volatile. Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz on day six of a proposed seven-day plan, subject to US conditions. Gulf Economies: Dubai’s economy reached Dh473 billion in the first half of 2026, while Saudi Arabia’s central bank governor said the kingdom’s economy remained resilient despite the conflict. Egypt’s Recovery: Moody’s upgraded Egypt to B3 with a positive outlook as reforms advance. Non-oil exports reached $48 billion in 2025, and foreign real estate investment rose 47.4% to $2.8 billion. Lebanon’s Strain: Economic activity improved slightly in the third quarter, but the finance ministry expects GDP to contract 7.5% this year; an IMF staff-level deal remains challenging. Financial Pressure: The US sanctioned Iraq’s International Development Bank over alleged links to Iran’s financial networks, adding pressure on regional banking ties.

Saudi Security & Energy: Egypt’s National Defence Council approved a defensive troop deployment to Saudi Arabia, pending parliamentary authorization, as Houthi attacks threaten the kingdom and regional oil supplies. Egypt’s Economy: Moody’s upgraded Egypt to B3 with a positive outlook, citing reforms and stronger reserves; the government says debt fell to 81.9% of GDP. Regulators also approved six fintech firms to expand digital financial services. Trade & Infrastructure: Ashdod Port is investing in technology, infrastructure and energy resilience to keep cargo moving during disruptions. Russia says trade with GCC states rose 45% last year. Shipping & Oil: Strait of Hormuz attacks reached a monthly high, while crude topped $110 a barrel amid supply fears. The US says its pressure campaign has blocked $25 billion in Iranian oil exports. Israel’s Business Climate: Sixty-one senior economists warn settlement expansion and settler violence could invite wider sanctions, deepen economic isolation and raise living costs.

Energy & Shipping: Attacks in and near the Strait of Hormuz reached a monthly high, with at least 12 vessels confirmed hit in the week to Oct. 16. Brent crude neared $110 a barrel as supply fears mounted. The US says its blockade has cut Iran off from maritime trade and blocked $25 billion in crude exports. Iraq’s Finances: Baghdad has requested an IMF financing programme to cushion the war’s economic impact. Oil provides about 90% of government revenue, leaving Iraq exposed to export disruptions. Gulf Outlook: Qatar’s government revenue fell 42% in the first half as conflict disrupted gas exports. Pakistan says it has secured energy supplies through November, but attacks on Gulf infrastructure threaten its longer-term outlook. Egypt’s Economy: Moody’s upgraded Egypt to B3 with a positive outlook, citing reform progress and easing inflation; the IMF forecasts 4.7% growth in 2027. Energy Investment: A new Turkish facility has begun making power converters for utility-scale battery storage, supporting the region’s push to expand grid flexibility and renewable energy.

Energy and Trade: Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted shipping and pushed oil to $110 a barrel, raising costs and inflation risks. Iraq estimates the regional conflict has cost its economy $60 billion, while Qatar’s government revenue fell 42% in the first half as gas exports were hit. Egypt’s Credit Outlook: Moody’s upgraded Egypt to B3 with a positive outlook, citing reforms, stronger reserves and reduced foreign-currency shortages. Tourism Investment: Egypt’s Pickalbatros secured $250 million from IFC and Attijariwafa Bank to acquire and renovate hotels in Morocco, with the project expected to support about 7,500 jobs. Business Banking: Suez Canal Bank launched a mobile app for companies to manage accounts, loans and transactions.

Energy Markets: Brent crude hit $109.86 a barrel, its highest since May, as renewed Middle East supply fears and risks to Saudi export routes outweighed hopes for more Russian diesel. Iraq’s Economy: Baghdad estimates the conflict has cost it $60 billion, with disrupted oil exports cutting a vital source of government revenue and foreign currency reserves down $20 billion. Türkiye’s Growth Push: Ankara targets 4.2% growth in 2027, while officials point to rising value-added exports and more than $10 billion in defense and aerospace sales last year. Trade and Investment: The UAE says it kept trade flowing and secured new deals during the conflict; Egypt has opened a $13.1 million dry port in Alexandria and approved a long-term logistics zone in Salloum. Lebanon’s Recovery: Qatar pledged support for the power grid and reconstruction in the south, offering a potential boost to a strained economy.

Iraq’s War Losses: Baghdad estimates the U.S.-Iran conflict has cost Iraq about $60 billion, as disruption to Hormuz threatens oil exports that provide roughly 90% of government revenue. Türkiye’s Growth Target: Ankara forecasts 4.2% growth in 2027, with inflation projected to fall to 21% by year-end as it seeks to boost exports and cut reliance on energy imports. Egypt’s Logistics Push: Alexandria’s new $13.1 million dry port is designed to ease seaport congestion and improve cargo links; Egypt also approved a 30-year license for a 652-acre logistics zone near the Salloum land port. Lebanon’s Recovery: Qatar pledged support for Lebanon’s electricity sector and southern reconstruction, including a planned solar project with QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies. Regional Trade: Armenian and Turkish ministers discussed direct trade and procedures for moving regulated goods, as normalization efforts gather pace.

Dubai Trade: Chinese firms are expanding in the UAE, with bilateral trade reaching $108 billion in 2025 and Chinese companies registered with Dubai Chambers more than doubling since 2016. UAE Outlook: The central bank governor forecasts nearly 10% economic growth in 2027, up from 1.6% expected this year, citing diversification, infrastructure investment and higher oil capacity. Iran Sanctions: Washington targeted an Iraqi bank and networks linked to Dubai, Hong Kong and offshore finance, alleging they moved hundreds of millions of dollars to help Tehran evade sanctions. Energy Markets: Oil topped $105 a barrel as attacks on shipping heightened supply fears; the IEA is accelerating the release of 100 million barrels from emergency reserves. Turkey Markets: MSCI froze certain changes to Turkish equity indexes and warned that insufficient reform could put the country’s emerging-market status at risk by mid-2027. AI Investment: Nvidia says Gulf countries are pressing ahead with AI plans despite the conflict, as they pursue economic diversification.

Regional Outlook: The IMF warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict threatens recovery, forecasting a 4.8% contraction across GCC economies and a 3.3% decline in Saudi Arabia. Energy and Investment Risk: Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and disruption risks around Hormuz are raising pressure on energy flows and Saudi Arabia’s investment ambitions. Egypt Investment: Egypt’s FDI rose 55% to $9.3 billion in the first half of FY2025/26, while the cabinet approved 30 public-private projects worth $771 million. Türkiye Trade: Foreign investment in Türkiye fell 35% to $6.85 billion in the first eight months of 2026, even as trade with the EU reached a record $233 billion amid progress on customs-union talks.

Energy Risk: A Houthi strike damaged offices at Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, intensifying concerns over oil infrastructure and shipping. Brent settled above $106 a barrel as attacks around the Gulf disrupted market confidence. Economic Outlook: The IMF warns that the Iran conflict is weighing on regional growth; it projects Saudi Arabia’s economy will contract 3.3% this year, while Qatar says state revenue has fallen 42%. Regional Infrastructure: Türkiye is discussing a major electricity link with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, aiming to strengthen cross-border supply and make fuller use of existing energy networks. Investment and Trade: Egypt says foreign investors view its investment risk at its lowest level since 2014. Elsewhere, a company owned by Egyptian billionaire Ahmed Elsewedy won a $2.2 billion power contract in Saudi Arabia, while Chevron and Egypt are nearing a deal for a $4 billion Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline.

Regional Energy: Saudi Arabia signed cooperation memoranda with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt spanning electricity links, renewables, oil and gas, hydrogen and storage. The deals come as attacks on Hormuz shipping disrupt energy flows; Qatar says its state revenue fell 42% in the first half amid the Iran war. Iran’s Economy: The central bank governor rejected claims of economic collapse, but oil exports have fallen to zero, the rial has lost nearly 35% of its value since July and September inflation hit 73.6%. Iranian shares have still rallied, as investors seek to protect savings from currency losses. Investment & Trade: Vietnam’s FPT opened a Cairo technology centre focused on AI, cloud and data services, targeting demand across EMEA. Türkiye-EU trade reached a record $233 billion as customs-union talks advanced, while Ankara urged closer EU funding ties for industrial investment and decarbonisation.