AGP Executive Report

Iran & Markets: Doha-mediated talks continue as Washington weighs fresh strikes and Tehran threatens a wider response. Oil has reached six-month highs, while Iran’s warning to tanker giant Sinokor adds to risks for shipping through Hormuz. Qatar’s Outlook: S&P expects the economy to grow 15% in 2027 as gas production recovers. Regional Investment: Libya is pursuing closer economic ties with Türkiye, with plans to bring Turkish firms into development projects; Egypt and Armenia also discussed expanding investment and trade. Israeli Businesses: A Jewish Federations loan fund has provided more than $240 million to 4,132 small businesses since October 2023, supporting an estimated 28,000 jobs.

Iran Talks: Qatari mediators reported progress toward a US-Iran deal, with Iranian officials in Doha and US representatives expected to join. A reported draft links steps on Iran’s nuclear programme and Hormuz shipping with sanctions relief, but a breakthrough is not confirmed. Qatar’s Outlook: S&P forecasts a 15% economic rebound in 2027 after a projected 14% contraction this year, as damaged LNG capacity keeps exports below prewar levels and repairs could take three to five years. Energy & Shipping: Brent crude climbed 2.4% to $117.64 a barrel on Friday, its highest close since April, and rose 13.6% in October. Tanker attacks and Houthi threats to Saudi energy sites are adding to risks for oil flows and trade through Hormuz and the Red Sea. Cost of Living: A UN official warned that the conflict is forcing rapid changes across the region, including higher prices, reduced subsidies and more taxation.

Gulf Shipping & Energy: Reported tanker attacks and fires are raising risks to oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi energy sites add to concerns over regional supplies. Project Risks: Technip Energies says access through Hormuz could become critical for heavy equipment deliveries to some Middle East projects in 2027; rerouting is adding costs, though operations remain stable. Egypt’s Rates: The central bank unexpectedly raised its key rates by one percentage point, taking the deposit rate to 20%, after the pound hit a record low. Türkiye’s Economy: Third-quarter tourism revenue rose 5% to $25.5 billion, even as economic confidence slipped in October. Auto Market: Nissan launched its new Navara Pro across the Middle East, with versions aimed at fleet and retail customers.

Türkiye’s Fund Repayments: Investors in seven funds under extraordinary liquidation began receiving 29.3 billion liras in interim payments. Including earlier payouts, 97.3 billion liras is being distributed to nearly 300,000 investors across 100 funds. War and Energy Costs: ExxonMobil and Chevron reported sharply higher profits as the Iran conflict lifted oil prices and refining margins. European jet fuel averaged $4.84 a gallon in October, up 114% from pre-conflict levels, adding pressure on airlines. Türkiye’s Economy: Tourism revenue rose 5% to $25.5 billion in the third quarter, while the country’s economic confidence index fell in October. Egypt’s Rates: Egypt raised interest rates for the first time since 2024, as inflation and household pressures weigh on the economy.

Energy and Markets: Oil remains volatile as Washington weighs renewed strikes on Iran while pursuing talks; Brent neared $115 a barrel, and a US naval blockade is targeting Iranian trade and guiding tankers through Hormuz. Shell’s profit doubled to $10.8 billion amid the conflict, while the World Bank warned commodity prices could surge 23%. Israel’s Political Stalemate: Final election results gave Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats, the opposition 48 and Arab parties 19, leaving no clear path to a majority. The uncertainty is adding pressure to Israeli markets. Trade and Investment: Türkiye’s annualized exports reached a record $409.1 billion, with the country aiming to lift high-tech exports. A South Korean trade mission is pursuing new consumer-goods deals in the UAE and Morocco; Korean beauty exports to the UAE climbed to $287 million last year. Egypt and the World Bank also agreed to boost investment and exports.

Egyptian Clean Energy: NoorNation raised $1.05 million to expand pay-as-you-go solar irrigation, including five solar plants serving farms in Bahariya Oasis and Minya. Türkiye’s Trade Push: Türkiye and Uzbekistan signed five agreements on trade, border procedures and business cooperation, building on bilateral trade of $3.1 billion last year; Türkiye also reported record annualized exports of $409.1 billion. Energy Shock: Shell’s third-quarter profit surged to $10.8 billion as the war disrupted supplies and lifted refining margins. Iran says three tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while shifting hopes for peace talks have driven sharp swings in oil prices. The World Bank forecasts commodity prices will rise 23% this year, adding pressure on businesses and households. Iran’s Economy: Tehran has authorized a special panel to adjust fuel and gas prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates Iran’s economy could contract by as much as 25%, while October inflation reached 88.7%. Israel Markets: Stocks swung after the inconclusive election, as investors weighed the prospect of prolonged political uncertainty.

Oil & Diplomacy: Brent slipped to $114.50 a barrel as JD Vance’s outreach to Iran revived hopes of talks, though Houthi attacks and the threat of renewed US strikes keep supply risks high. War’s Economic Toll: The Iran conflict has cost the US an estimated $47.1 billion; Iran’s annual inflation hit 88.7% in October, with officials warning of a deep economic contraction. Israel’s Economy: Election deadlock leaves the next government uncertain, while the shekel and stocks have come under pressure. Regional Investment: China, Oman, Türkiye, Uzbekistan and the Eurasian Development Bank plan a private-equity fund for Central Asian and Caucasus businesses. Separately, Turkish investors are exploring projects in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, including oil, gas and the Development Road corridor. Qatar and Egypt also discussed expanding investment and joint projects.

Energy Shock: The World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026 as Middle East conflict disrupts energy and shipping. Iran’s October inflation hit 88.7%, while gas shortages could force restrictions in 11 provinces. Digital Investment: Egypt plans five to seven mega data centres over the next four to five years, aiming to serve international markets by 2030. Clean Energy: Financing terms have been signed for a $650 million, 1GW solar project in Qena. Regional Business: ADNOC Drilling reported $1.07 billion in nine-month profit, while Turkey says interim repayments to investors affected by a fund liquidation will begin Friday. Global Spillovers: BASF raised its 2026 profit outlook after price hikes helped offset higher energy and raw-material costs linked to the Iran war.

Israel’s Vote: A record turnout left both Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition short of a majority, with Arab parties gaining ground and coalition talks looming. The shekel strengthened after the vote, but prolonged political uncertainty could weigh on business confidence. Energy Markets: Oil slipped nearly $2 a barrel on hopes of diplomacy, yet Brent remained near $114 as shipping disruptions and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure kept supply risks high. Egypt Investment: Cairo is working with the World Bank on a strategy to attract foreign investment to priority sectors, while a $650 million solar project in Upper Egypt advances toward financing. Gulf Finance: UAE crypto activity rose 32% to $104.8 billion, underscoring the region’s fast-growing digital-asset market.

Hormuz Shipping Risk: Iran says it will take legal action against South Korean shipper Sinokor from Nov. 1 over alleged transit violations, adding uncertainty for operators and insurers using the strategic waterway. Energy & Markets: Oil slipped as diplomacy raised hopes of easing the Iran conflict, but Brent remained above $114 a barrel. In Moscow, Qatar and Iran discussed energy cooperation, while Iran’s president called for investment in gas infrastructure. Regional Finance: Qatar and Egypt reviewed ways to deepen cooperation in banking and financial services at the World Investment Forum in Doha. Business Growth: Orange Jordan’s PASS programme supported 130 entrepreneurs with training and mentoring to help businesses grow and improve sales. Economic Shifts: Azerbaijan’s non-oil and gas sector made up about 70% of its economy in the first nine months of 2026. In Türkiye, the broad unemployment rate rose to 31.2% in September, while the standard measure reached 8.4%. Digital Infrastructure: The Middle East remains the world’s lowest-cost region for data-centre construction, averaging $9.93 per watt, strengthening its appeal for AI investment.

Energy Markets: Oil eased on hopes of Iran diplomacy, but Brent remained near six-month highs as attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping kept supply risks elevated. Regional Outlook: The IMF expects Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan GDP to contract 1.3% in 2026, with conflict and energy costs weighing on growth. Monetary Policy: Pakistan’s central bank raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 12%, citing higher energy and wheat prices and worsening inflation risks. Investment: Egypt signed a preliminary financing agreement for a $650 million solar project, while Türkiye is planning $100 billion in power-grid investment. Business Finance: Qatar’s business association urged governments to ensure local SMEs can access financing and contracts tied to major development projects. Israel’s Election: Voters went to the polls amid a tight contest, with the cost of living and economic impact of years of conflict among the campaign’s key concerns.

Energy Markets: Oil prices eased on hopes of renewed US-Iran diplomacy, but Houthi attacks on Saudi targets keep supply risks and volatility high. Türkiye’s Grid Investment: Ankara plans about $100 billion for power networks by 2040, citing rising demand from industry, renewables, electric vehicles and data centres. Gulf Investment: Saudi and Qatari shares rallied on de-escalation hopes. Across the wider Menat region, a $1.4 trillion infrastructure pipeline includes $872 billion in identified projects, and most surveyed investors expect capital inflows to grow by 2030. Saudi Economic Resilience: Renewed attacks are testing Vision 2030’s reliance on alternative shipping routes and domestic industries, both vulnerable to regional disruption and import dependence. Egypt’s Mining Push: Cairo and the World Bank have launched a partnership aimed at raising mining’s contribution to GDP. UAE-Greece Trade: Abu Dhabi Chamber agreements open new links for companies, including access to a network of more than 140,000 Greek businesses.

Energy & Markets: Oil slipped from a six-month high but Brent remained below $116 a barrel as renewed US-Iran strike threats and Houthi-Saudi attacks kept supply risks elevated, adding to inflation pressures. Regional Outlook: The IMF projects a 1.3% contraction across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026, while warning that conflict threatens growth. Qatar Partnerships: The EU is seeking closer trade, energy and security ties with Qatar, with visa-waiver discussions also on the agenda. Israel’s Finances: The Bank of Israel rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to use cryptocurrency to sidestep possible sanctions, saying the country should protect its economic ties with key trading partners. Egypt Investment: Egypt and the World Bank launched a mining-sector partnership, while positive results from Chevron’s Nargis-2 gas well point to fresh energy potential. Gulf Finance: Robinhood secured Dubai’s regulatory authorization and plans a regional launch in 2027.

Iraq Trade: Baghdad has opened an inquiry into the closure of the Al-Sheeb crossing with Iran as protests disrupt an oil-company route and residents report rising food prices. Saudi Industry: SABIC returned to profit in Q3, earning 500 million riyals as revenue rose 14% from the previous quarter despite regional conflict and market headwinds. Oil Markets: Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel, its highest in nearly six months, as fears of Middle East supply disruptions lifted prices. Israel Finance: The Bank of Israel rejected Prime Minister Netanyahu’s proposal to use cryptocurrency to evade possible sanctions, urging leaders to protect economic ties with key trading partners. Regional Outlook: The IMF projects a 1.3% contraction across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year, with recovery dependent on easing conflict and renewed trade.

Oil Shock: Brent crude surged above $117 a barrel, its highest level since April, as fears of renewed US strikes on Iran and threats to energy infrastructure raised supply concerns. Regional Outlook: The IMF expects the Middle East economy to contract 4.8% this year, then rebound 9.1% in 2027, with uncertainty still high. Saudi Arabia’s economy is forecast to shrink 3.3% in 2026, though the IMF says Houthi attacks have had limited impact so far. Egypt: The growth outlook has improved, but the pound is expected to weaken as energy risks add pressure. Investment: Ras Al Khaimah is seeking deeper ties with Chinese companies, including a partnership with robotics firm UBTECH for research and testing in the emirate.

Energy & Markets: Renewed US-Iran strike fears sent oil to a five-month high, while Oman’s MSX 30 fell 3.89% amid Hormuz shipping disruptions. An oil spill also prompted beach closures in Umm Al Quwain. Iran’s Economy: President Masoud Pezeshkian said many households struggle to afford basic needs as sanctions and prolonged uncertainty hamper planning. Digital Infrastructure: Reported Iranian plans to target Gulf undersea cables raise risks for internet services, financial transactions and e-commerce. Türkiye’s Industry: Defence firms have secured $15 billion in contracts this year, with the sector targeting $20 billion by year-end; exports rose 15.6% in the first nine months. Investor Risks: Turkey’s fund scandal has led to 114 people jailed pending trial, as nearly half a million investors face losses or restricted access to savings. Egypt Investment: Scatec and the EBRD have set up a $221 million platform for renewable-energy projects.