AGP Executive Report

Azerbaijan–Türkiye Business Push: Azerbaijan’s FM Jeyhun Bayramov met Türkiye’s Hakan Fidan in Baku, highlighting expanding trade, investment and energy cooperation under the Shusha Declaration, with Turkish investment in Azerbaijan above $18bn and bilateral trade at $5.7bn in 2025. Syria’s Sanctions Reset: Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa told the Arab Media Summit that sanctions lifted after regional mediation have “restarted” the economy, with plans targeting growth from about $32bn (2025) toward $50bn (2026) and $200bn over the next decade. Iran–BRICS Finance: BRICS leaders backed Iran’s bid to join the New Development Bank, a move Iran says was agreed at the summit, even as final wording on admission remains nuanced. LNG Outlook for Asia: With Hormuz supply disruptions easing after the US-Iran war ends, LNG demand in Pakistan, China and India is expected to rebound as prices normalize. Turkey Crackdown Hits Rights and Business: Turkish police detained protesters and raided LGBTQ venues, while a separate probe detained 33 executives over alleged fresh produce price manipulation. Energy Security Tensions: Saudi Arabia reportedly sought intelligence support routed via CENTCOM as Houthis tighten pressure around Bab al-Mandeb, raising risks for global shipping and regional oil infrastructure. Banking Deal: ABB Bank completed a 51% acquisition of Uzbekistan’s Davr Bank, rebranding it as “ABB Davr” and expanding SME and retail services.

Sanctions & Finance: The US Treasury sanctioned Russia’s VTB Bank for helping Iran evade Western sanctions, warning of secondary penalties for any foreign firms dealing with it. Crypto & Trade: A Financial Times report says Iran is using bitcoin and other crypto channels to settle cross-border payments as the central bank “turns a blind eye,” undercutting sanctions. US-Iran War Costs: A Pentagon watchdog report puts the cost of US losses in the Iran war at nearly $29bn euros, citing ammunition “strategic deficits” and replenishment bottlenecks. Red Sea Energy Pressure: Oil prices settled about 1% higher as strikes hit Saudi energy infrastructure and attacks disrupt shipping, with Gulf states postponing Iran talks. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s Pezeshkian said Iran has no problem with regional states but opposes US bases, while Iran-Gulf Strait of Hormuz talks were delayed again. Turkey Crackdown: Turkish police detained dozens in nationwide LGBTQ raids, with authorities citing “family” and child protection. Palestinian West Bank: B’Tselem accused Israel of an “elimination project” aimed at dismantling Palestinian life through interconnected policies. Business & Jobs: Qatar’s public prosecution joined an Arab prosecutors meeting in Egypt, while Qatar will host an Arab anti-corruption conference later this month.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran’s IRGC says it destroyed a U.S. Saildrone Explorer near the waterway, after a prior drone capture, as oil prices jumped above $107 and shipping risk returns to the front page. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Saudi Arabia’s pipeline closure and renewed Hormuz/Bab al-Mandeb disruptions are feeding higher fuel costs and raising the odds of more central-bank tightening. Crypto Under Sanctions: A Financial Times report says Iran is using bitcoin and other crypto channels for cross-border payments while the central bank “looks the other way,” undercutting sanctions enforcement. Gulf-Iran Talks Hit Snag: Oman postponed a planned Iran-Gulf meeting, citing the need for consensus, leaving maritime arrangements uncertain. Saudi-Israel Quiet Outreach: Reuters-linked reporting says Saudi Arabia is seeking intelligence and support against the Houthis, including via CENTCOM channels reaching Israel indirectly. Turkey Crackdown: Turkey detained dozens and moved to block LGBTQ+ websites and social media accounts amid a wider “family values” crackdown. Business Moves: Etihad expects to break even in 2026 despite the Iran war; 3t named a new CFO and MENA managing director to push growth. Regional Economy & Jobs: Kuwait’s KCCI urged a clearer Arab economic vision as growth hasn’t translated into jobs or lower poverty.

Oil & Shipping Shock: Fresh attacks around Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent above $108 and renewed fears of tighter global supply after Riyadh shut its east-west pipeline and a vessel was hit near the strait. Diplomacy Stalls: Oman postponed a Gulf-Iran meeting on Hormuz “in the interests of consensus,” leaving shipping rules uncertain as traders brace for more disruption. Sanctions & Finance: A Financial Times report says Iran is using bitcoin and crypto channels to settle cross-border payments as the central bank “turns a blind eye,” undercutting U.S.-led sanctions. BRICS Pivot: BRICS adopted a New Delhi Declaration pushing trade in national currencies and interoperability to route payments around Western systems, with Iran pressing hardest amid the war. Energy Politics: Iran’s president told India there’s “no need for a regional policeman,” arguing security should be handled by regional states. Regional Business Moves: Shorooq and Emirates Growth Fund backed fleet-management tech firm FMSi to build a Gulf champion; UDST and Iberdrola Innovation Middle East signed an MoU to expand energy-focused research. Tech & Markets: Qatar Foundation’s BOTaina won five Gold Stevie Awards for AI; multiple market reports highlighted growth in jet charter, onboard retail, predictive maintenance, and smart pharma packaging. Culture/Policy: Israel’s culture minister vowed to seek revocation of citizenship for filmmakers behind Gaza documentary NAZA after its Venice win.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran released footage of the IRGC destroying a U.S. Saildrone Explorer near the chokepoint, as Tehran also touts earlier seizure of an advanced U.S. undersea drone—raising maritime risk and pushing Brent above $107. Energy Shock: Saudi oil output fell to its lowest since 1990 as Houthi pressure in the Red Sea and the Iran-war squeeze disrupt exports, while U.S. diesel hit a record $6 a gallon. Crypto Under Sanctions: A Financial Times report says Iran is using bitcoin and other crypto channels for cross-border payments, with the central bank reportedly turning a blind eye as the rial weakens. BRICS Diplomacy: At the New Delhi summit, Xi urged a “due role” for peace and proposed a “Greater BRICS” push on AI, trade and manufacturing; leaders also called for “maximum restraint” and criticized UN-unapproved sanctions. Hormuz Talks in Oman: Iran says an Oman meeting will focus on a new maritime route, but insists it’s not a full reopening and ties any change to U.S. commitments. Regional Trade Moves: Iran and Armenia agreed a simplified “green” customs corridor at Norduz–Agarak to speed cargo clearance. Turkey Crackdown: Turkish authorities detained 162 people and raided LGBTQ+ groups in a “My Family is Safe” operation, escalating pressure on civil society. Jordan Compliance Push: Jordan pledged political backing for its next anti–money laundering and counter-terror financing evaluations (2027–2029), aiming to strengthen its investment climate.

Maritime Flashpoint: Iran’s IRGC says it destroyed a U.S. Saildrone Explorer surveillance drone near the Strait of Hormuz, following a prior capture of a U.S. underwater drone—raising fears of a wider U.S.-Iran maritime confrontation. Energy Shock: The Strait and Red Sea disruptions are feeding into higher prices, with Brent jumping above $107 and U.S. diesel hitting record levels around $6 a gallon, squeezing transport and farm costs. Saudi Pressure: Saudi oil output reportedly fell to its lowest since 1990 as Houthi blockades and the Iran war squeeze export routes, deepening the supply crunch. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar condemned Iranian attacks on Arab states and Houthi targeting of civilian and economic facilities, while Bahrain said it will skip any Hormuz talks with Iran until ties are restored. BRICS Trade & Rules: BRICS leaders adopted a New Delhi Declaration calling for “maximum restraint” in West Asia and pushing WTO dispute settlement reform, while Iran and others used the summit to argue against unilateral sanctions and coercive trade measures. Domestic Strain in Iran: Reports say Iran’s rial hit another record low and fuel shortages are driving strikes among drivers, underscoring the economic pressure behind the standoff. AI & Risk: Anthropic says it blocked misuse of its AI that could support cyberattacks and biological weapons—an added layer to the region’s tech-and-security debate.

Maritime Flashpoint: Iran’s IRGC says it destroyed a U.S. Saildrone Explorer near the Strait of Hormuz, after earlier seizure of a U.S. underwater drone—raising fears for one-fifth of global oil traffic and pushing Brent above $107. Energy Shock: Saudi oil output reportedly fell to its lowest since 1990 as Red Sea disruptions and the wider Iran war squeeze exports; U.S. diesel hit a record above $6 a gallon. BRICS Diplomacy: At the New Delhi summit, BRICS urged “maximum restraint” and condemned attacks on civilian and safeguarded nuclear facilities, while Xi warned against Middle East escalation. Iraq–Iran Fallout: Iraq closed border crossings with Iran as an “economic penalty” over alleged drone-related attacks on Saudi pipelines, while approving a joint probe into drone launch sites. Regional Shipping Talks: Iran says Gulf foreign ministers will meet in Oman to sign a joint Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route, while warning safety can’t be guaranteed under U.S. blockade. Business & Trade: Qatar’s Media City and Es’hailSat launched satellite service packages for licensed firms, and PPPs are gaining momentum across MENA as Gulf governments expand private infrastructure delivery.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after drone strikes, while Iran-backed Houthis seized Yemen’s Mayun and tightened control around Bab el-Mandeb—raising fears of fresh disruptions to oil exports and pushing Brent above $107. Hormuz Pressure & Shipping Risk: Iran says its Hormuz closure is defensive under international law and will join Oman talks on “safe routes,” as the US reports continued diversion of commercial vessels and a naval blockade. Sanctions Hit Aviation Networks: The US Treasury expanded “Operation Economic Outcast” with new OFAC sanctions targeting 27 Iranian airlines and foreign firms accused of keeping them connected to global commerce. BRICS Business Push: At the New Delhi BRICS Business Forum, Iran’s Pezeshkian urged wider use of local currencies and called for BRICS mechanisms to prevent trade obstruction; the bloc also highlighted women-led entrepreneurship and cross-border B2B links. AI & Cyber Arms Race: Anthropic says an Iran-linked actor used Claude to compile targeting material and shipboard vulnerability research, underscoring how AI is moving into military planning. Cost of War on Households: US inflation ticked up as gas prices spiked, while diesel hit a record above $6 a gallon—an immediate drag on trucking and everyday goods.

Oil & Shipping Shock: The US says it has destroyed about nine Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz, while Iran reports attacks on ships and a ballistic strike—pushing Brent back above $100 and lifting diesel to record levels, with inflation pressure spilling into consumer costs. Sanctions & Proxies: Washington expands sanctions on networks supporting Hezbollah and Kataib Hezbollah across Iraq, Lebanon, UAE and Türkiye, aiming to choke funding and sanctions-evasion channels. Red Sea Front: Iran-linked Houthis seize Mocha and threaten the Bab el-Mandeb route, raising new risks for Saudi oil exports and global shipping. BRICS Business Push: Iran’s Pezeshkian tells the BRICS Business Forum the bloc must move from “potential” to “operational” trade and joint financing as Modi and Putin meet in Delhi amid the Middle East war. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and Türkiye review ways to deepen economic and investment ties and coordinate on de-escalation. Energy Cooperation: Azerbaijan and Türkiye kick off the 5th Energy Forum in Baku, with talks spanning electricity markets, renewables and hydrocarbons. Corporate & Markets: US CPI rose 0.4% in August on higher gasoline; ECB warns further rate hikes could hurt growth if the Middle East conflict drags on. Business Appointments: Sodexo names Sasha Vijayananthan as Senior VP HR for APMEA.

Oil Shock & Markets: Brent pushed firmly above $100 as Iran–U.S. shipping attacks and Hormuz fears deepened, lifting inflation worries and rattling bonds and equities. Central Banks: The ECB raised rates again to counter energy-driven inflation, while Fed rate-hike odds climbed as wholesale prices firmed. Sanctions & Proxies: The U.S. expanded “Operation Economic Outcast,” hitting networks tied to Hezbollah and Kata’ib Hezbollah across Iraq, Lebanon, UAE and Türkiye, and tightening Iran licensing via OFAC. Iran–U.S. War Outlook: Reports say both sides are preparing for a long fight, with advisers warning it could last into the next U.S. term; Trump also claimed the war would end after midterms. Shipping Chokepoints: UN warnings grew as Houthis seized Mokha near Bab al-Mandab, adding pressure to already strained Red Sea and Hormuz routes. Regional Business & Trade: Iraq approved a water deal-linked crude export to Turkey up to 33,000 bpd; Türkiye and Italy signed a labor and social policy cooperation MoU. SME Risk: UNCTAD warned small firms could be pushed out of global supply chains as Strait of Hormuz transit collapses. Tech & Investment: GITEX AI Türkiye wrapped with calls for global investment as startups pitched AI, logistics and fintech.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran says it attacked more than a dozen vessels trying to pass Hormuz and expanded a prohibited zone as the US counter-blockades Iranian ports, pushing Brent back above $100 to $101.21. Policy Shock in Europe: The ECB lifted rates again to 2.50% as the Iran-war energy spike threatens euro-zone inflation staying above target. US-Iran War Outlook: A Wall Street Journal report says Trump’s top advisers privately warned the conflict could last years, contradicting Trump’s claim it ends right after the November midterms. Iran Sanctions Workarounds: Reuters reports Iran is using an oil-for-credits barter mechanism with China, moving $2–$2.5bn via a special vehicle to buy goods including military equipment. Regional Business & Finance: Sohar International opened its first Omani bank office in Hong Kong to deepen Asia–Middle East financial ties. Defense & Industry: Türkiye’s HAVELSAN agreed with Egypt’s AOI to produce HAMZA-1 drones in Egypt. Palestine Diplomacy: A Palestinian deputy foreign minister urged sanctions and an arms embargo on Israel, arguing condemnation alone won’t stop Gaza’s war or West Bank settlement expansion.

US-Iran Shipping Escalation: Iran and the US traded strikes on tankers and warships near the Strait of Hormuz, with oil jumping back above $100 as maritime incidents spread across the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Oil & Inflation Spillover: Brent hit $100 a barrel again, while the ECB is set to raise rates to contain renewed energy-driven inflation fears. GCC Security Politics: Qatar’s cabinet reaffirmed solidarity with Gulf states and condemned attacks on civilian and commercial shipping, while Saudi Arabia faced renewed Houthi strikes on oil and infrastructure. Diplomatic Fallout: Morocco’s King Mohammed VI condemned Iran’s missile attacks on Jordan; meanwhile, UK-Israel tensions deepened after Britain moved to ban settlement goods and Israel ordered the closure of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem. Sanctions & Markets: The UK and other countries signaled tougher settlement-related trade curbs, while Israel’s FM said there are no plans to forcibly expel Palestinians from Gaza. Business & Tech Resilience: In Gaza, a tech hub reopened co-working spaces to keep workers connected despite telecom damage, and identity-security firm Saviynt named a new Middle East & Africa sales VP. Regional Investment Signals: Iraq and Egypt discussed land freight links and a “Made in Egypt” expo in Baghdad, as Pakistan hosted a policy challenge focused on turning knowledge into practical economic solutions.

Oil Shock: Brent surged back above $100 a barrel as US-Iran fighting intensified and attacks hit tankers and Middle East energy facilities, reviving inflation fears and dragging equities lower. Maritime Flashpoints: The Strait of Hormuz disruption risk grew as the US struck multiple Iranian-linked tankers and Iran warned of new maritime restrictions, while a Greek-owned tanker was reported hit by a drone. Diplomatic Fallout: Israel ordered the UK East Jerusalem consulate closed within 30 days after Britain moved to ban imports from West Bank settlements and imposed settlement-related sanctions. Regional Economy: Bahrain’s non-oil economy expanded in Q1 2026 even as oil activity contracted sharply due to Strait of Hormuz traffic limits. Tech & Investment: UAE startups raised $362m in August, reclaiming MENA funding leadership, while Türkiye pushed AI investment momentum at GITEX Ai Türkiye. Business Moves: Mannai appointed a new ICT group president for Middle East and Africa expansion, and TurboGen brought former NYC Mayor Eric Adams onto its advisory board. Crypto Repatriation: Iran eased currency controls to support crypto-based repatriation, including USDT and Bitcoin, as sanctions tighten.

Iran–US Escalation: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward a US base in Jordan after US forces destroyed five IRGC-linked oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask, while Iran also claimed it captured a US unmanned underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz—raising risks for Gulf shipping and energy revenues. Sanctions & Aviation Pressure: The US Treasury rolled out sweeping “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation sector, including 27 airlines and dozens of intermediaries, as Tehran warned of “economic warfare” and retaliation. Oil & Markets: Brent pushed toward $100 as attacks and Hormuz disruption fears tightened supply expectations, with knock-on effects for fuel costs and regional trade. UK–Israel Settlement Trade Fight: Britain moved to ban goods from illegal West Bank settlements and restrict related services, prompting Israel to order closure of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem and expel some UK-linked entities. Egypt Export Push: Egypt aims to lift annual exports to $100bn by 2030, launching an export initiative to broaden beyond a concentrated group of firms. Business Credibility Tools: Dun & Bradstreet SAME launched a Business Credibility Report to help firms verify credentials and strengthen due diligence across MENA-linked trade. Dubai AI Training: Dubai trained 14,000 companies on agentic AI adoption as it targets commercial leadership by 2028. Sports Sponsorship Deal: Liverpool named Turkish Airlines as its new front-of-shirt sponsor in a reported £300m+ deal, signaling continued Gulf-linked investment in global brands.

Oil & Markets: World oil prices pushed back toward $100 as Middle East conflict flared, with Brent near $98.5 and WTI around $94, while Houthi attacks reportedly disrupted Saudi energy operations and investors weighed further supply risk. Trade & Shipping: The UN trade agency warned Strait of Hormuz disruptions could squeeze small and medium-sized firms out of global supply chains, raising costs and deepening trade concentration. Hormuz Risk: Iran reiterated threats of “economic war” and warned US energy assets are “exposed,” as it prepares new maritime restrictions and shipping corridors. UK-Iran Finance Pressure: Britain published legislation to tighten sanctions on Iran, expanding trade bans and restricting access to the UK financial system. UK-Israel Settlement Trade: The UK moved to ban imports of goods from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, with Israel warning of repercussions for business. UAE Tax Update: UAE issued VAT amendments affecting input tax recovery and medical products rules, with changes aimed at compliance and clearer treatment for businesses. Abu Dhabi Markets: ADX and Virtu Financial launched electronic block-trading indications for institutional investors, aiming to reduce market impact and information leakage. Turkey Economy & Industry: Turkey’s medium-term programme outlines transferring defence tech know-how into civilian sectors to cut foreign dependence, alongside plans to boost domestic production and R&D.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary warned the US that “economic warfare” could trigger a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf, while Iran’s parliament speaker reiterated “strike our assets and you get struck,” as Tehran threatens new restricted areas and shipping corridors. Energy Markets: Oil prices pushed to six-week highs near $100 as US-Iran clashes and tanker attacks raise fresh fears of supply disruption through Hormuz. Diplomacy Pressure: Qatar urged a phased de-escalation to avoid a cycle of high-intensity conflict, and UAE adviser Gargash said rebuilding trust with Iran will be a “mountain to climb” even if relations restart. Regional Impact: Iraq and the Arab League discussed Hormuz navigation disruptions and potential economic fallout, underscoring how the chokepoint fight is spilling into regional trade planning. Business Moves: Saudi fintech PayTabs agreed to buy Amazon Payment Services’ MENA operations in a deal worth $100m+, aiming to consolidate payments across the region. Markets & Finance: Pakistan Stock Exchange approved SE Fruits & Vegetables’ IPO, seeking up to Rs1.92bn, as investors watch cross-border trade links to the Middle East.